Teton County experienced an approximately 15% drop in the number of sales of single-family homes, attached homes, and building sites (when focusing the analysis east of the Teton Range). While some indications from aggregated data show a corresponding drop in pricing, examination of individual datapoints reveals that most properties in Teton County have held their value, with low inventory being the driving factor for this occurrence. The primary exception to this is for the lower price points of Teton County’s real estate market, as such properties bear the dual burden of having more competition from which they cannot provide significant distinguishing characteristics (larger projects of similar units), while also being the most interest rate sensitive (due to mortgage financing being a larger component of purchases in this segment). While more of an “owner attribute” rather than a “property attribute,” it is also noted that sellers that focus on the highest sales comparable that was generated during the Covid Pandemic may be faced with accepting a correction – that is actually perhaps better described as the need to ignore a pandemic-generated anomaly rather than accept a decline from established pricing.
Inventory Remains Limited
Inventory for the First Week in August Shows a Slight Decrease as Compared to Last Year
Single-Family Home Sales Trends
While the aggregated data for single-family home sales for the first half of 2024 shows a drop in the number of sales of nearly 16%, the average price of this market segment increased by nearly 2%. Admittedly, with the smaller sample size of this data, this is most accurately interpreted as values having plateaued. Examples of this are evident in the high-end segment of the single-family home market where the highest 10 sales in the first half of 2024 averaged approximately $12M compared to a similar figure for the first half of 2023 of $13M. Notably, the 2024 average was bolstered by one sale in excess of $35M, with only three of the top sales being above $10M, as compared to eight sales above $10M in 2023. Therefore, it could be argued that the 2023 high-end market was more robust in the first half of 2023. That said, parsing the data too finely for such a small dataset is likely not to provide conclusions of statistical relevance, and it can be said that more generally that health still remains for Teton County’s most valuable properties.
Similarly, for Teton County’s more moderately priced market segment demand still remains strong, particularly when sellers acknowledge that a plateau in pricing has occurred and do not subscribe to the practice of adding 10% to the peak pricing that occurred during the “Covid bump.” As an example, the Cottonwood Park neighborhood enjoyed a price increase during the Covid Pandemic that some speculated could dissipate with the decreased flight from urban areas that occurred subsequent to the pandemic and with increasing interest rates. However, removing outlying sales, it is noted that the average price of single-family homes in the Cottonwood Park neighborhood approximated $1,100 per square foot in the period spanning January of 2022 through the end of 2023, while sales in the first half of the year maintained this pricing with the average sale price being approximately $1,200 per square foot.
Attached Home Sales Trends
The aggregated sales data shows a nearly 8% increase in average sales price despite a 22% drop in the number of sales in the first half of 2024. However, this is largely a function of higher-end units which can be targets for second home ownership. Such sales were noted in the first half of 2024 to exceed $10M in the Teton Village Area. As previously alluded to, not all of Teton County’s real estate market segments have been immune from price contraction. In particular, units located in larger developments can appear as more “commodity” acquisitions and be subject to more aggressive competition by neighboring properties. This is currently noted in the Virginian Village Condominiums where listings are currently being marketed for $525,000, and peak pricing during and immediately subsequent to the Pandemic had reached over $650,000. That said, as a general market commentary, it is noted that many of these units were acquired for less than $300,000 prior to 2018.
Vacant Land Sales Trends
As of the first week of August, the Teton County MLS reported 51 homesites available for sale, an approximately 26% reduction from this time the previous year, with the average price of these listings being $5,638,600, over 50% above the average asking price at this time last year. Despite this shortage of available land, the sold data provides the report of the average price of homesites having decreased by 50% ($5.1M down to $2.5M). The cause of this drop, however, is primarily due to a lack of lot inventory for sale, and not negotiated lower prices. That said, some resistance to the purchase of vacant land is reported to be attributable to construction costs, which have yet to subside despite the rising cost of borrowing money. Observed sales in the first half of 2024 ranged from $650,000 for a .28-acre site within Jackson, to $7,500,000 for a 1.7-acre site in the 3 Creek Subdivision / golfing community.