Teton County Real Estate Late Summer 2009 Update
First Full Year Post “Mortgage Crisis” Returns Volume and Pricing Drops
In July of 2007 the national reporting of what was readily coined as the “mortgage crisis” had instantaneous affects in most U.S. real estate markets. The Teton County Real Estate market was initially an exception to this, with sellers largely being unwilling to acknowledge a decrease in value. With sellers not acknowledging a market correction that many buyers perceived as being imminent, the result was a marked decrease in the number of transactions. Aggregate data for this period indicated that sellers were reasonably successful in maintaining previous price points. However, as mentioned, this success was at the expense of transaction volume. By the start of 2009, the perceived near collapse of the financial market in the fall of 2008 had forced Teton County property owners to acknowledge that the local real estate market was not unaffected by the ongoing economic downturn. As final deeds are analyzed from mid-August 2009, this is evident in that sales volume numbers are down nearly 70% from 2008’s already-discounted numbers. Furthermore, as sellers have been forced to acknowledge decreasing price points, the average price of real estate transactions in Teton County has fallen. The combination of lower price points and decreased transaction numbers has caused the year-to-date reported dollar volume of sales transactions to show a nearly 71% decrease.
| 2008 | 2009 | ||
| Total Residential (Single-Family, Condo,Homesite) Transactions | 288 | 91 | -68.40% |
| Average Price of Transaction | $1,504,774.87 | $1,385,910.84 | -7.90% |
| Total Sales | $433,375,162.94 | $126,117,886.00 | -70.90% |
The above-described decrease in sales activity has caused a marked increase in the inventory of available single-family homes and homesites for sale, with inventory increases in these market segments being 19.06% and 14.69% respectively. Attached home inventory actually shrank by slightly more than 1% during this period. However, this market segment was one of the first to be hard hit in 2008 (showing an over 195% increase in inventory as of August 2008) and arguably can be represented as having hit its saturation point last year. On average, available inventory in Teton County has slightly more than doubled since August of 2007, with this average being a composite that takes into consideration the explosion of attached home listings (increase in inventory of 192.42%) and the less dramatic increase in vacant land listings (increase of 47.1%). To further analyze the most current trends in the Teton County Real Estate Market, the market segments of single-family home sales, vacant homesite sales, and condominium / townhome sales will first be examined on an August 15th year to date basis without differentiation between the higher-end resort segment of the market and the more moderately priced market segment. Each of these data sets was then allocated between its higher-end and more moderately priced components for further analysis.
Single Family Residences in Teton County Wyoming
Reviewing the year-to-date sales data for detached single-family residences for 2009 as compared to 2008, a decrease in the number of sales (-41.76%) and dollar volume of sales (-49.24%) was noted. The average price of single-family home transactions decreased by 12.85% during this period. This price drop is further corroborated when comparing previous sale price points to that of recent sales and active listings. Such comparisons reveal decreases from 13% to slightly more than 36%. Notably, when observing that the number transaction in 2008 represented an over 54% decrease in volume from 2007, it is understood that current sales numbers represent a significant decline from the peak volumes of 2007. The following table arrays year-over-year comparisons of single-family home sales by analyzing the time period through mid-August.
The attached table arrays year-over-year comparisons of single-family home sales by analyzing the time period of January 1 through mid-August.
Observing the attached table and chart (see link above), it is noted that the number of single-family sales that have occurred year to date has decreased 41.76% from the same period the preceding year. Number of sales this low has not been seen in the preceding nine years.
Allocation Between “Resort / Second Home” and “Local” Market
Historically, the Teton County Market Area has been able to be segmented into its components of homes having their greatest appeal to market participants whose income is largely dependent on the local economy, versus homes that are more likely to appeal to second home purchasers and investors whose wealth is not necessarily tied to the local economy. Examples of the former category would be homes in developments such as Cottonwood Park, Melody Ranch, and the incorporated Jackson area. Examples of the latter area include homes located on the “West Bank” of the Snake River, north of Jackson, and the Teton Village area. The following table allocates the single family homesites between these segments:
Single Family Residential Local Market
|
2008 |
2009 |
||
| Number |
57 |
33 |
-42.11% |
| Average |
$1,135,517.53 |
$823,166.67 |
-27.51% |
| $ Volume |
$64,724,499.00 |
$27,164,500.00 |
-58.03% |
Single Family Residential Resort/Second Home Market
|
2008 |
2009 |
||
| Number |
34 |
20 |
-41.18% |
| Average |
$2,925,147.06 |
$2,808,413.05 |
-3.99% |
| $ Volume |
$99,455,000.00 |
$56,168,261.00 |
-43.52% |
As shown in the previous table, the local and resort markets have both declined in transaction volume by a similar amount. However, a larger decreasing sales price is reported to have occurred in the local market. This may indicate a greater ability of second home owners to resist downward price pressure.
Luxury Home Submarket of the Resort-Orientated Market Segment
Included in the above-discussed resort orientated market segment is the submarket of luxury homes. Observation of high-end sales reveals that 7 sales equal to or above $3,000,000 had occurred as of mid-August this year. This number is less, but reasonably similar to that noted in 2008 as well as the years between 2000 and 2004, but less than that of 2005, 2006 and 2007 (which had an average of over twice this year’s tally). The attached table shows year-to-date data for this market from year 2000 through 2009.
Homesite Sales in Teton County Wyoming
Observing year-to-date data for vacant homesites similarities with the single-family homesites are noted in that a significant decrease in the number of sales of vacant land has been noted between what occurred year-to-date as of mid-August 2008 as compared to 2009 for the same period. More specifically, vacant land sales decreased in number (-70.37%) and dollar volume (-82.14%). Average price decreased by -39.73%. The decrease in price of this magnitude is likely partially the result of the changing composition of the body of property being sold, as comparisons of sales and re-sales (and active listings) show an average devaluation more along the lines of 25% (although devaluation examples ranging from 12.46% to 50.71% were observed. The attached table arrays year-over-year comparisons of vacant homesite sales by analyzing the time period of January 1 through mid-August.
As was done with single-family residences, the market for vacant homesites was, for analysis, allocated into its component parts of the “resort” and “local” markets. The following table summarizes this allocation:
Residential Homesite Local Market
|
2008 |
2009 |
||
| Number |
16 |
1 |
-93.75% |
| Average |
$1,001,906.25 |
$450,000.00 |
-55.09% |
| $ Volume |
$16,030,500.00 |
$450,000.00 |
-79.19% |
Residential Homesite Resort/Second Home Market
|
2008 |
2009 |
||
| Number |
38 |
38 |
-60.53% |
| Average |
$2,643,342.11 |
$1,356,748.33 |
-48.67% |
| $ Volume |
$100,447,000.00 |
$20,351,225.00 |
-79.74% |
As shown in the previous table, the resort market has shown a slightly smaller decline in sales (on a percentage basis) than that of the grouping of sales that have been classified as being pertinent to the local market. This trend is similar to that which was noted in the analysis of single-family residences and be indicative the second home market being more robust than the local market.
Condominium and Townhome Sales in Teton County
Observing year-to-date data for condominiums and townhomes, a decrease in sales volume (number of sales) of approximately 84.62% is noted. While, the average price of attached homes (as shown by the aggregate data) only decreased by 6.43%. This is concluded to be due to the changing composition of the body of sales, as comparison of sales and re-sales (as well as active listings) provides the indication that this segment of the market as devalued between approximately 15% and 30% depending on market segment. Please see attached document for a chart and a graph related to condominium and townhome sales.
Allocation Between “Resort / Second Home” and “Local” Market
As was done with single-family residences and homesites, the market for attached homes for analysis, was allocated into its component parts of the “resort” and “local” markets. The following table summarizes this allocation:
Condominium/Townhouse Local Market
|
2008 |
2009 |
||
| Number |
62 |
10 |
-83.37% |
| Average |
$641,500.60 |
$503,690.00 |
-21.48% |
| $ Volume |
$39,773,037.00 |
$5,036,900.00 |
-87.34% |
Condominium/Townhouse Resort/Second Home Market
|
2008 |
2009 |
||
| Number |
81 |
12 |
-85.19% |
| Average |
$1,394,384.28 |
$1,412,250.00 |
1.28% |
| $ Volume |
$112,945,126.94 |
$16,947,000.00 |
-85.00% |
As shown in the previous table, both the local market and the resort market have declined approximately in equal fashion in the measures of sales volume and dollar volume of sales. It is likely; however, that the decline in these market segments is for differing reasons. The lower end attached home market experienced price growth as first time home-owners and speculators alike took advantage of the loose credit policies that were formerly in existence. High-end attached homes were less likely to be affected by the influences of financing historically, but are very much at the mercy of credit policies now, as condo-tel and other income properties are proving to be difficult to find financing.
The Supply Side
When considering the health of a real estate market, it is important to consider available inventory as well as historical demand. In this regard, signs of a market slowdown are evident as well.
The attached table arrays the increase in listed inventory in the major market segments of Teton County. Areas such as the condominium market north of the Town of Jackson or the market segment south of the Snake River Bridge were not specifically addressed due to the inconsistencies typically caused by the limited amounts of data points in these areas. Overall, this analysis shows that, on average, buyers have 12.07% more inventory to select from when property shopping in Teton County. While this increase is not extraordinary, the increase is considerable when viewing the inventory growth as compared to August of 2007, with this comparison revealing a 111.24% increase. The greatest increase in listing inventory is noted in the market segment of attached homes, which grew 192.42%. This is somewhat to be expected for the market segment that had been most heavily influenced in upward price pressure for lower-end properties by the loose credit policies which existed prior to mid-2007. Compounding the woes of this market segment is the fact that it is currently being very restricted on the high-end by a lack of available credit for high-end attached homes with short term rental potential (condo-tels and similar property). Conversely, the lowest growth in inventory is noted when observing vacant homesites (47.1%). This is logical in light of the general limited availability of developable vacant land in Teton County. Detached single-family homes falls in between the market segments of attached homes and vacant land, with a growth in inventory from 2007 to 2009 of 134.21%. The greatest growth of single-family inventory is noted for the market segment comprised of properties in the town of Jackson and areas immediately south, which has shown inventory growth of 178.85%. The other market areas have shown more modest inventory growth between 100% and 117.39%. Despite the on average more than doubling of inventory in all market segments, a bright spot noted is that the majority of this inventory growth occurred between 2007 and 2008, with smaller inventory growths being noted over the most recent year to date.
In Summary
The Teton County Real Estate Market had, in recent history, experienced robust growth in sales volume and price. This trend largely continued through 2007, with the onset of recessionary tendencies triggered by what has come to be referred to as the “mortgage crisis” in mid-summer 2007 not causing a significant impact to 2007 numbers. However, review of 2008 numbers showed the effects of what had become a world-wide recession of larger magnitude that had been seen in recent history. The calendar year of 2009 is the first full year where Teton County market participants have been transacting business with the acknowledgement of a deeply affected real estate market. The sales numbers reported for 2009 as of mid-August corroborate this statement, showing a decrease in the number of residential transactions that is down 68.40% from the same period the previous year – which notably was down over 44% from the previous year. Inventory growth during 2009 has continued. However, this growth has decreased in rate significantly from that observed in 2008, perhaps indicating that the supply half of the supply / demand equation is reaching its apex. The number of real estate transactions that will occur in the coming year is difficult to estimate, as this will largely be dependent on the return of buyer confidence and the willingness of sellers to acknowledge a new value paradigm that is likely 15% – 35% below previous market highs (depending on market segment) with the likelihood of both of these occurrences being difficult to gauge.
marketing periods of uncertain length in the hopes of holding on to previously accrued price gains.
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