Teton County Real Estate Mid Fall Update 2009

Market Softening Continuing

As final deeds are processed from mid-October, it is evident that sales volume in Teton County, Wyoming is behind the previous year’s pace for the second consecutive year. Comparing mid-October statistics from this year to the same period as last year, the number of residential property sales (single-family residences, condominium / townhouses, and residential building sites) showed a decrease of 56.98%. This sales volume shows a decrease in transactions that is nearly eleven percentage points greater than the drop in volume observed from 2007 to 2008. As a result of this drop, dollar volume of sales decreased over 60% (a loss that is nearly twenty-one percentage points greater than the decrease in this metric when comparing the dollar volume in sales of the 2007 to 2008 years). An indication that the previously somewhat unbending price stance of Teton County sellers’ has softened was also noted in the observation that the average price of real estate transactions in Teton County dropped 13.69%. Notably, a decrease in average price of this magnitude is opined to be a considerable understatement of the value loss that has occurred and is hypothesized to be a function of a change in composition of the body of sales. Review of sales and re-sales of the same or similar properties occurring during the time period spanning from the market peak in early-to-mid 2008 to present indicates that losses of over 25% are common to most market segments, with some data points indicating value losses of over 40%. Despite the overall loss in sale volume and downward value trend, there are indications that interest from potential buyers is beginning to be garnered at these lower price points. Both single-family residences and vacant homesites showed rates of decrease in sales volume that were slightly less from 2008 to 2009 than the percentage decrease that was observed from 2007 to 2008. However, the decrease in the condominium market exerted more than enough downward pressure to create a market that, overall, decreased at a greater rate this year than the previous year to date.

 

	2008	2009
Total Residential (Single-Family, Condo,Homesite) Transactions	344	148	-56.98%
Average Price of Transaction	$1,567,506.29	$,1,401,230.95	10.61%
Total Sales	$539,222,162.94	$207,382,180.94	-61.54%

The decrease in sales activity has caused a marked increase in the inventory of available homes, attached homes and homesites for sale, with the combined inventory of homesites, single-family residences and attached homes increasing from 643 listings to 745 listings as of October 2009 (15.86% increase from the previous year). While significant, this increase is not as dramatic as the 73.32% increase that was seen in active inventory from October 2007 to October 2008. To further analyze the most current trends in the Teton County Real Estate Market, the market segments of single-family home sales, vacant homesite sales, and condominium / townhome sales will first be examined without differentiation between the higher-end resort segment of the market and the more moderately priced market segment. Each of these data sets was then allocated between its higher-end and more moderately priced components for further analysis and comparison to data from previous years. Due to the necessity of collecting deeds subsequent to their being recorded, this “year to date” analysis reflects a year-to-year comparison of sales through the cut off period of October 15.

Single Family Residences in Teton County Wyoming

Reviewing the year-to-date sales data for detached single-family residences for 2009 as compared to 2008, a decrease in the number of sales (-39.52%) and dollar volume of sales (-47.80%) was noted. The average price single-family home transaction fell in the amount -13.69%. However, this decrease appears relatively mild and was likely mitigated by the changing makeup of the sales comprising the body of closed sales. Observation of “paired” sales and re-sales (or active listings) of the same or similar properties over the past year provided indications of value loss ranging as high as over 40%, but with more common devaluations being in the 25% – 30% range.

The attached table arrays year-over-year comparisons of single-family home sales by analyzing the time period of January 1 through mid-October.

Observing the attached table and chart, it is noted that the number of single-family sales that have occurred year to date has decreased 39.52% from the same period the preceding year. Number of sales this low has not been seen in the preceding nine years. However, it was noted that this rate of decrease is slightly less than the 46.78% loss that was seen in the previous year-to-date comparison of 2007 to 2008 data.

Allocation Between “Resort / Second Home” and “Local” Market

Historically, the Teton County Market Area has been able to be segmented into its components of homes having their greatest appeal to market participants whose income is largely dependent on the local economy, versus homes that are more likely to appeal to second home purchasers and investors whose wealth is not necessarily tied to the local economy. Examples of the former category would be homes in developments such as Cottonwood Park, Melody Ranch, and the incorporated Jackson area. Examples of the latter area include homes located on the “West Bank” of the Snake River, north of Jackson, and the Teton Village area. The following table allocates the single family homesites between these segments:

Single Family Residential Local Market

 

	2008	2009
Number	71	39	-45.07%
Average	$1,137,591.54	$792,294.87	-30.35%
$ Volume	$80,768,999.00	$30,899,500.00	-61.74%

 

Single Family Residential Resort/Second Home Market

 

	2008	2009
Number	53	36	-32.08%
Average	$3,152,924.53	$2,735,923.92	-13.23%
$ Volume	$167,105,000.00	$98,493,261.00	-41.06%

 

As shown in the previous table, the local market has shown a greater decline in number of sales (on a percentage basis) than that of the grouping of sales that have been classified as being pertinent to the resort market. The resort market also faired better in the category of pricing as well, with the average sales price only being down 13.23% for this segment, as opposed to a 30.35% decrease in average price for the locals market. Given the small sample size of these markets however, it is likely that some of this disparity is due to fluctuations in the composition of the homes comprising the inventory of sales.

Luxury Home Submarket of the Resort-Orientated Market Segment

Included in the above-discussed resort orientated market segment is the submarket of luxury homes. Observation of high-end reveals that 12 sales equal to or above $3,000,000 had occurred as of mid-October of this year. This number is similar to sales numbers noted in the years of 2000 and 2004, but less than half of the volume that occurred during the very robust high-end market years of 2005 – 2007.

The attached table shows year-to-date data for this market from year 2000 through 2009

 

Homesite Sales in Teton County Wyoming

 

Observing year-to-date data for vacant homesites, similarities with the single-family market segment are noted in that a significant decrease in the number of sales of vacant land has been noted between what occurred year-to-date as of mid-October 2008 and year-to-date 2009. More specifically, vacant land sales decreased in number (-50.85%) and dollar volume (-69.01%). Average sales price fell 36.96% during this period. Single-family homesites selling for less than $400,000 was a strong indication that market corrections were occurring.

The attached table arrays year-over-year comparisons of vacant homesite sales by analyzing the time period of January 1 through mid-October.

Allocation Between “Resort / Second Home” and “Local” Market

As was done with single-family residences, the market for vacant homesites was, for analysis, allocated into its component parts of the “resort” and “local” markets. The following table summarizes this allocation:

Residential Homesite Local Market

	2008	2009
Number	42	4	-83.33%
Average	$808,562.50	$368,750.00	-54.39%
$ Volume	$19,405,500.00	$1,475,000.00	-92.40%

Residential Homesite Resort/Second Home Market

	2008	2009
Number	35	25	-28.57%
Average	$2,800,528,57	$1,396,409.00	-50.14%
$ Volume	$98,018,500.00	$34,910,225.00	-64.38%

As shown in the previous table, the local market has shown a larger decline in sales (on a percentage basis) than that of the grouping of sales that have been classified as being pertinent to the resort market. Notably, both market segments have experience decreases in average sales price of over 50%. As with the preceding analyses, the measure of average sales price cannot be construed as an absolute tracking of market trends, as the small sample size and changing composition of the body of sold data hampers the efficacy of this metric. Nevertheless, it is a safe statement that the vacant homesite market has experienced a value correction.

Condominium and Townhome Sales in Teton County

Observing year-to-date data for condominiums and townhomes, a decrease in sales volume (number of sales) of 72.67% is noted. This drop is the greatest of all the market segments examined. However, it is noteworthy that 37 of the attached home sales included in the 2008 data were attributable to the post-construction closings on the Hotel Terra Condominium Project. Without these sales, the number of transactions in this market segment would have decreased in the amount of 64.51%, a figure similar to that of the decline of the single-family and vacant homesite market segment. However, while the percentage decrease in sales volume for attached homes is more similar to the other market segments once it is adjusted for the influence of Hotel Terra, it is still the market segment showing the greatest drop in sales volume. This is theorized to be at least partly attributable to the difficulty in obtaining purchase financing for many types of attached home projects as credit has tightened in the wake of “mortgage crisis.”

Please see attached document for a chart and a graph related to condominium and townhome sales.

 

Allocation Between “Resort / Second Home” and “Local” Market

As was done with single-family residences and homesites, the market for attached homes for analysis, was allocated into its component parts of the “resort” and “local” markets. The following table summarizes this allocation:

Condominium/Townhouse Local Market

	2008	2009
Number	69	22	-68.12%
Average	$634,073.00	$483,347.73	-23.77%
$ Volume	$43,751,037.00	$10,633,650.00	-75.70%

Condominium/Townhouse Resort/Second Home Market

	2008	2009
Number	92	22	-76.09%
Average	$1,414,925.29	$1,407,752.04	-0.51%
$ Volume	$130,173,126.94	$30,970,544.94	-76.21%

As shown in the previous table, the resort market has shown a greater decline in sales (on a percentage basis) than that of the grouping of sales that have been classified as being pertinent to the locals market. However, as previously discussed, the influence of the closing of pre-sales from the Hotel Terra development are likely to have exaggerated the drop off in sales in the resort market. That said, the attached home market for both the resort and local market is showing itself to be the hardest hit, although the reasoning for this devaluation is slightly different for each of these segments. Previous to the onset of the “mortgage crisis,” the locals attached home market offered some of the more affordable housing opportunities for first-time home owners. As a result, prices in this segment became rapidly inflated as competition for these homes became heated and the previously-existing loose credit policies exacerbated situation by providing home shoppers elevated purchasing power through leverage. With the tightening of credit polices that has occurred in the wake of the “mortgage crisis,” much of the market for this type of home has been eliminated due to financing constraints and the demand for attached homes in the locals market has been correspondingly affected. Financing is the main hurdle affecting the resort market as well. However, while financing for the locals market was primarily changed through the altering of available loan to value ratios and acceptable credit scores, the resort market has been most affected by the lending communities new found aversion to the financing of income properties and, in particular, condo-hotel properties.

The Supply Side

When considering the health of a real estate market, it is important to consider available inventory as well as historical demand. In this regard, signs of a market slowdown are evident as well.

The attached table arrays the increase in listed inventory in the major market segments of Teton County. Areas such as the condominium market north of the Town of Jackson or the market segment south of the Snake River Bridge were not specifically addressed due to the inconsistencies typically caused by the limited amounts of data points in these areas. Overall, this analysis shows that, on average, buyers have approximately 15.86% more inventory to select from when property shopping in Teton County. While this increase in inventory is not particularly dramatic, when considering that the inventory level in 2008 represented a 73.32% increase over 2007 levels, a significant growth in inventory is noted.

In Summary

The Teton County Real Estate Market had, in recent history, experienced robust growth in sales volume and price. This trend largely continued through 2007, with the onset of recessionary tendencies triggered by what has come to be referred to as the “mortgage crisis” in mid-summer 2007 not causing a significant impact to 2007 numbers. However, review of mid-fall 2008 numbers indicates that a significant market slowdown had settled on the local real estate market. The most recent numbers available indicate that this trend has continued through the first three quarters of 2009. Historically, downturns in the Teton County Real Estate Market have been characterized by sellers being more inclined to not sell properties at discounted prices, with buyers’ resistance to such price points resulting in a drop in sales volume. This pattern was somewhat holding true during 2008. However, 2009 has seen sellers acknowledge the market shift, with aggregate numbers showing decreases in transaction price, while number of sales has decreased by nearly 57%. Comparison of recent sales and re-sales (or active listings) corroborates the aggregated data’s indication of a value loss, with devaluations from peak levels from 20% to over 40% being noted.

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